Make things worth making

Do you want to make things worth making? 

Here's my key takeaways from Tony Fadell, "the father of the iPod", co-creator of the iPhone and co-founder of Nest labs.

Cool technology isn't enough

A great team isn't enough. Plenty of funding isn't enough. You have to time it right. Customers need to see that your product solves a real problem they have today - not one that they may have in some distant future.

You can't wait for perfect data

It doesn't exist. You just have to take the first step into the unknown. Use what you have learned and take your best guess at what's going to happen next. It's not data or intuition; it's data and intuition.

Your product isn't only your product

It's the whole experience that begins when someone learn about your brand for the first time and ends when it disappears from their life. It's when you give care and attention to every part of that journey you create something that people will love.

Every product should have a story

A narrative that explains why it needs to exist and how it will solve your customer's problems. Make the story easy to remember, easy to repeat. Someone else telling your story will always reach more people than your own talking.

  • The story appeals to people's rational and emotional sides. Recognize the needs of your audience and connect with something they care about, like their worries and fears.
  • The story takes complicated concepts and makes them simple.
  • The story reminds people of the problem that's being solved. Why does this thing need to exist? Why does it matter? Why will people need it? Why will they love it?

You can only have one customer

You cannot make a single product for two completely opposite customers for two different customer journeys.

You need constraints to make good decisions 

... and the best constraint in the world is time. By forcing a hard deadline on yourself, you can't keep putting the finishing touches on something that will never be finished. Don't allocate too much money at the start. People do stupid things when they have a giant budget.

The best teams are multigenerational

Experienced people have a wealth of wisdom that they can pass on to the next generation and young people can push back against long-held assumptions.

Always be training someone on your team to do your job

There should always be at least one or two people on your team who are natural successors to you. Take vacations, they are a great way to build a team's future capabilities and see who might step into your shoes in the years to come.

"Build" by Tony Fadell

Testing business ideas

No business plan survives first contact with customers.

Testing is the activity of reducing the risk of pursuing ideas that look good in theory, but won't work in reality.
Design is the activity of turning vague ideas, insights and evidence into concrete value propositions and solid business models.

We test business ideas to reduce risk and uncertainty. You break a big idea into smaller chunks of testable hypotheses covering three types of risk.

First, that customers or users are not interested in your idea (desirability).

Second, that you can't build and deliver your idea (feasibility).

Third, that your business can't earn enough money from your idea (viability).

A well-formed business hypothesis describes a testable, precise and discrete thing you want to investigate.
  • Your hypothesis is testable when it can be shown true (validated) or false (invalidated), based on evidence (and guided by experience).
  • Your hypothesis is precise when you know what success looks like. It describes the precise what, who, and when of your assumptions.
  • Your hypothesis is discrete when it describes only one distinct, testable and precise thing you want to investigate.
Turn your most important hypotheses into experiments to create evidence you can learn from.
  • "We believe that ..."
  • "To verify that, we will ..."
  • "And measure ..."
  • "We are right if ..."
Evidence is what you use to support or refute the hypotheses. Insights are what you learn from studying the evidence.
  • "We believed that ..."
  • "We observed ..."
  • "From that we learned that ..."
  • "Therefore, we will ..."
Then turn insights into action. Make informed decisions to abandon, change and/or continue testing a business idea based on collected insights.

But testing ideas costs money. So then you just ask for millions in the big bang annual funding process and spend it all to avoid decreased budget next year?

No. Think like a venture capitalist instead. Invest and incrementally fund the teams and a series of business ideas and double down on the ones that are successful.

Set up a small investment committee that consists of leadership with decision-making authority when it comes to budget, because they will be helping the teams navigate from seed, launch and growth stages. Funding decisions typically take place at 3-6 months intervals.

To summarize: Key Hypotheses + Experiments + Key Insights = Reducing uncertainty and risks.

"Testing business ideas" by David J. Bland and Alexander Osterwalder

How does NASA organize a company party?

They planet ...

We fear uncertainty

We fear uncertainty. We don't start walking until we find an approach that's guaranteed to work. How can you know what you are doing when no one has done it before? 

The secret is to start walking before you see a clear path. If you stick to the familiar, you won't find the unexpected.

First-principles

Reason from first-principles. Doubt everything you can possibly doubt until you are left with unquestionable truths. That's where you start. With each commitment, each presumption, each budget item, ask yourself, what if this were not true? Why am I doing it this way? Can I get rid of this this or replace it with something better?

Compare oranges and apples

Approach life not with the assumption that we know (or should know) the answers, but with the desire to learn, experiment and absorb. Compare oranges and apples, look for connections between seemingly unrelated things.

Tackle the hardest part first

If your goal is one percent improvement, you can work within the status quo. But if your goal is to improve tenfold, the status quo has to go. You must then start with a blank slate and question all assumptions. Picture the perfect and ask what it takes to build it. Move backwards. Tackle the hardest part first.

Problem reframing

In schools we are taught to answer problems, not to reframe them. Problems may have multiple causes, don't stick with the first that pops to mind. Don't fell in love with your favorite solution and define the problem as the absence of it.

Opinions are sticky, hypotheses not

We undervalue evidence that contradicts our beliefs and overvalue evidence that confirms them. Opinions are sticky. Instead, generate several working hypotheses. Opinions are defended, but working hypotheses are tested. Your goal should be to find what's right, not to be right.

Failure is success if we learn from it

Celebrate lessons from failure, not failure itself. Good decisions can lead to bad outcomes. In uncertainty, outcomes are not completely within your control. Focus on the variables you can control – the inputs – instead of the outputs. Even if the project fails, you can take the input that worked and use them elsewhere.

Surviving your own success

When we succeed, we believe everything went according to the plan. When we succeed we stop pushing boundaries. Surviving your own success can be more difficult than surviving your own failure. Instead of risking something new, we maintain the same "proven" formula that led to our success.

Remain in Day 1

The rocket-science mindset requires remaining in Day 1. We must keep devising thought experiments, taking moonshots, proving ourselves wrong, dancing with uncertainty, reframing problems, testing as we fly, and return to first principles.

That's the mindset of a rocket scientist!

"Think Like a Rocket Scientst" by Ozan Varol

What's your problem?

How much time, money and energy do we waste by solving the wrong problems?

The way you frame a problem determines which solutions you come up with. By shifting the way you see the problem, by reframing it, you can find better solutions.

Reframing is not about finding the real problem; it's about finding a better problem to solve. 

Problems typically have multiple causes and can be addressed in many ways.

Frame the problem. Write down the problem you are trying to solve and list the people who are involved. Is the problem clear? Is a solution "baked into" the problem framing? How do you know the statement is true?

Then start to look outside the frame. What's missing from the current problem statement? Look beyond your own expertise. Avoid framing a problem to match whatever technique you are most proficient in. Look to prior events. Did something happen before the period of time you are looking at? Look for hidden influences. Are there higher-level, systemic factors at play that influence the people involved?

Rethink the goal. What is the goal you are trying to achieve and why? What would success look like? Are you pursuing the right goal? Is there a better goal to pursue? Are key assumptions actually true? What is the goal behind the goal?

Examine the bright spots to identify positive exceptions that can give you a new perspective on the problem, and even point you directly to a viable solution. When do we not have the problem? When was the problem less severe? Have the problem already been solved at least once? Who else deals with this type of problem? Who seems not to have this problem, even if they are in a similar situation? What are they doing differently?

Take a look in the mirror. What is my role in creating this problem? Is it possible that my (or our) own behavior is, on some level, contributing to the problem? Scale the problem down to your level. Is there a part of the problem I can do something about?

Take their perspective. Invest time in understanding other people. Discover how they see the world - and in particular, how they see it differently from you. What's their needs, emotions, and general point of view? What are their problems? Goals? Beliefs? What information do they have? There is often a reasonable explanation behind the actions of other people: something that you might have done too, had you been in their shoes.

Move forward. The last step in the reframing is to validate your framing through real-world testing. Describe the problem to stakeholders and get feedback. Get outsiders to help validate your problems. Test and find out if the problem is real or important enough for your stakeholders to really want to solve it.

At the end of a reframing, schedule time for a new one. 

The problem change over time. Repeat. 

Create routines and practice the mindset.

"What's your problem?" By Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg

The Inevitable

Do you think a lot about technological imperatives that will shape the next thirty years and transform our lives?

Kevin Kelly does. Much of what will happen in the next three decades is inevitable, driven by technological trends that are already in motion.

Cheap, powerful, invisible, and omnipresent AI

It's hard to imagine anything that would "change everything" as much as cheap, powerful, invisible, omnipresent AI. Everything that we formerly electrified we will cognify.

We will surrender piece by piece of what is supposedly unique about humans, and we will face an identity crisis. 

The greatest benefit of the arrival of AI is that AI will help define humanity. We now question what humans are good for, what makes us special, and what is it that humans want to do. We need AI to tell us who we are. AI will help us better understand what we mean by intelligence in the first place.

Everyone will have access to a personal robot, but simply owning one will not guarantee success. Success will go to those who best optimize the process of working with AI bots and machines.

New interactions

In the coming 30 years, anything that is not intensely interactive will be considered broken. The future of technology resides, in large part, in the discovery of new interactions. 

We will use more of our body and senses to communicate with machines.

Computers are getting closer and closer to us. Computers have evolved from the basement, to smaller rooms, to our desk, to our laps, into our pockets, and now laid against on our skins (wearables). The only way to get closer than that is to go under the skin.

Personalization and instant access

We are going to pay for personalization and instant access. Anywhere we want personalization, new filtering inventions will follow. We need to pay attention to more and more sources to do our jobs and to learn. We need real-time filters upon filters to navigate the explosion of infinite choices. The filters will tell us what we want.

Hardware and software

Hard things will behave more like software due to embedded intelligence – there are so many more ways to provide a service than a hard product.

The truth?!

What's the truth?! The truth is not delivered by authors and authorities anymore but is assembled in real time piece by piece by yourself.

You make your own content and construct your own truth from the liquid stream of facts flowing through the web (hyperlinks, text, videos, images, sound). For every expert you will find an anti-expert. We have to constantly question what we think we know.

The status of creation will be inverted, so that the users, you, become the new creators. You will be a creator of digital products and content used to do your job.

Do we need more answers or better questions?

Technologies that help generate questions will be valued more. Question makers will be the engines that generate new fields. Questioning is simply more powerful than answering.

"The Inevitable" by Kevin Kelly