"We need to prioritize better..."

"We need to prioritize better...", a phrase often heard when costs increase and resources become more constrained.

Ah, so it's that simple?

Prioritization means arranging or doing things in a particular order, while prioritization is the process of doing so. It’s obvious what it is, but not how to do it.

Everything we prioritize is a bet, meaning we make an informed decision to allocate our resources to one thing over another, despite uncertainty.

This is necessary because there will always be more work than there is capacity to execute. No matter how many talented people you have, you’ll never have enough to do everything. If everything is important, then nothing is important.

Unfortunately, there’s no magical formula for how to prioritize, and it’s rarely as simple as a mathematical exercise.

It's a constant balancing act between running and improving what already exists, pursuing new strategic bets, and weighing short-term gains against long-term impact.

There are many frameworks and techniques, but for me, it boils down to a collective judgement. A discussion between relevant disciplines, key people, and stakeholders.

Evaluate ideas in relation to each other. Compare and contrast. Which of these do we believe will have the biggest impact on our strategy, customers and business? How much effort and resources do we think it will require from us? Can we afford it as things look today? What are the consequences of not doing it? How confident are we in our assumptions?

To prioritize, we need filters. This is where strategy and goals come into play. What is it that you want to achieve, and what is the strategy to get there? If this is unclear, the prioritizations will suffer.

Without a clear sense of direction, it becomes difficult to determine what tasks are most important.

Where does it get difficult? If you want to do more of something, you must do less of something else. Pausing or stopping ongoing initiatives is crazy hard. It’s always easier to spin a story explaining why continuing is better than stopping.

Our cognitive biases and lack of clear thinking doesn't help. Prioritization has a human element. It's emotional. Our feelings take over.

We prefer to keep things the way they are.

We feel uncomfortable with loosing what we have. When something we like is (or threatens to be) taken away, we often value it higher, aka Loss Aversion.

We have a tendency to continue because we have invested resources in it, such as time, money, or competency, aka Sunk-Cost Fallacy.

The scarcer common resources become (money, capacity), the more territorial behavior we get. It's a self-preservation mechanism inherent in all of us.

So what can we do?

First, widen your options. Downgrading one of many is easier than if you only have one or two ongoing. With only one option you become too invested. You take it personally.

You ask yourself "How can I make this work?" instead of "Is there a better way? What else can we do with the same time and money?"

With a portfolio of options and activities, it's easier to step back and look for patterns. Which initiatives repeatedly create value? Where are the dependencies and synergies?

Second, shift your perspectives. It's very hard for us to see the world from outside our own perspective.

An example is the thought exercise Andrew Grove went through with Gordon Moore before committing to making a massive change in Intel's business: "If we got kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you think they would do?"

When we think of our colleagues or peers, we see the forest. When we think of ourselves, we get stuck in the trees. Ask yourself, "What would I tell my colleague to do in this situation?"

One of the best tools to get an outside view to improve your prioritization is to get other people's perspectives. But don't share your opinion first. Provide what the person needs to know to give valuable feedback, like what you try to accomplish, and nothing more. 

"What would be your process for prioritizing if you were in my shoes? How would you go about doing it?"

Third, set, in advance, guardrails and "tripwires" to snap us out of autopilot. These are signals that make us reconsider a prioritization. Signals that tell us when to jump and take action.

An artificial deadline is one example of a tripwire. Other examples include performance indicators, budget caps, behavioral patterns, and time-based reviews or check-ins.

Fourth, start talking about the opportunity cost. Limited resources always have alternative uses. Opportunity cost is what you give up when you make a choice. It's the thing you can't have because you picked something else.

The cost of using a limited resource for a specific activity, can be measured as the value or opportunity lost by not using it for a better alternative.

Opportunity cost can challenge the comfort of the status quo and make the cost of inaction more visible. You can highlight that continuing a low-value activity means sacrificing higher-value opportunities.

You can shift the narrative from "stopping an activity" to "investing in something better."

How do you prioritize?

Escaping the Build Trap

John Deere, the farming technology company, encourage product managers and software engineers from urban areas to actively go out and see farmers in action.

They send their people to a fully-functioning farm set up a few miles from the office to learn more about farming.

This is what it means to be customer centric. Knowing that the most important thing you can do to create great products is to deeply understand your customers.

When you do not understand your users' problems well, you cannot possible define value for them.

In product-led companies, this is baked into the culture.

It's about avoid ending up in the build trap where we measure value by the number of things we produce instead of associating value with the outcomes we want to achieve for our business and users.

Products and services are not inherently valuable. It's what they do for your customer or user that has the value - solving a problem, or fulfilling a need or desire.
  • A great product manager understands the market, how the business works as well as the company vision and goals.
  • A great product manager has deep empathy for the users of the product.
  • A great product manager needs to be strategic enough to help craft the vision of the product and a strategy to get there, but tactical enough to ensure a smooth execution.
  • A great product manager works with the team in developing and validating ideas and in marrying business goals with the user goals to achieve value.
  • A great product manager says things like "I think the most costly thing we can do is build this product without knowing it's the right product to build. How do I test it and ensure that this is actually what we want? How do I become more confident that we are on the right path before I invest money in this?"
Easy? No. This is a discipline that must be mastered as a career. You need to develop the skill set through experience and practice.

Transparency

Be transparent. The more leaders can understand where teams are, the more they will step back and let the teams execute.

When leaders don't see progress toward goals, they quickly resort to their old ways: Providing and demanding more detailed information, providing more detailed instructions, and putting more controls in place.

Tell them where you are, what you plan to achieve next and how much money you need to get to those next goals.

How do you avoid the build trap?

"Escaping the Build Trap" by Melissa Perri

What's value?

What's the value of water? It depends on how thirsty you are.

Something that is worthless to one person or organization can be of immense value to someone else. Value is in the eye of the beholder.

Value can be the importance, monetary worth or usefulness of something.

The value of your work

I produce stuff at work. Is my work valuable by just existing? No.

It's what it does for the ones consuming my work that has the value.

My work creates value by solving problems worth solving. Fulfilling someone's needs and desires while helping my organization achieve their strategic goals and priorities.

Communicate value through numbers

What's the value of natural gas? $3.5/MMBtu, ish. That's every possible characteristic of natural gas combined into a single dimension. However, it tells me nothing about its potential, history and other qualities.

We describe and communicate value like a map, an abstraction, to simplify complexity and decisions.

Maps are useful, but with a specific purpose in mind. They cannot be everything to everyone. If we don't understand what the map does and doesn't tell us, it can be useless or even dangerous.

Concrete numbers can be useful, but you better have a story for the receivers of the value you intend to provide. You need to understand what they value, what they are interested in, and be able to translate your work and offering into their language.

Don't assume that what we value is what everyone values or should value.

Business value and user value

Business value is what the business values, often framed as economic benefits to the company, but could also be safety, security and sustainability.

User value is what the users value. The ones directly using the technology products to achieve and address their own desires, needs or problems.

Why is this distinction important? Products that people don't use or know how to use will not create any business value.

A team delivering a product can rarely control or influence the business value directly. But you can change the behavior of the ones using your product and make them take certain actions that can lead to and be measured as a predictor of business value.

That's the gap you need to close. That's the story you need to tell. Find the signals of business value.

Business cases

A business case tries to describe the potential value, cost, and risk at some point down the road. When there is a lot of uncertainty, this is difficult. We must make assumptions.

According to Prof. Bent Flyvbjerg's data from 16 000 projects from 20-plus field in 136 countries, only 0.5 % delivered on promised cost, time and benefits.

Avoid the illusion of certainty, "If we do X, then Y value will be result".

Don't set and forget. Treat it as a hypothesis that needs to be tested. What's the absolute smallest action that you can take to test out the riskiest assumption you have about your business case?

"We believe that ... To verify that, we will ... And measure ... We are right if ..."

What's value to you, and how do you evaluate it?

Make things worth making

Do you want to make things worth making? 

Here's my key takeaways from Tony Fadell, "the father of the iPod", co-creator of the iPhone and co-founder of Nest labs.

Cool technology isn't enough

A great team isn't enough. Plenty of funding isn't enough. You have to time it right. Customers need to see that your product solves a real problem they have today - not one that they may have in some distant future.

You can't wait for perfect data

It doesn't exist. You just have to take the first step into the unknown. Use what you have learned and take your best guess at what's going to happen next. It's not data or intuition; it's data and intuition.

Your product isn't only your product

It's the whole experience that begins when someone learn about your brand for the first time and ends when it disappears from their life. It's when you give care and attention to every part of that journey you create something that people will love.

Every product should have a story

A narrative that explains why it needs to exist and how it will solve your customer's problems. Make the story easy to remember, easy to repeat. Someone else telling your story will always reach more people than your own talking.

  • The story appeals to people's rational and emotional sides. Recognize the needs of your audience and connect with something they care about, like their worries and fears.
  • The story takes complicated concepts and makes them simple.
  • The story reminds people of the problem that's being solved. Why does this thing need to exist? Why does it matter? Why will people need it? Why will they love it?

You can only have one customer

You cannot make a single product for two completely opposite customers for two different customer journeys.

You need constraints to make good decisions 

... and the best constraint in the world is time. By forcing a hard deadline on yourself, you can't keep putting the finishing touches on something that will never be finished. Don't allocate too much money at the start. People do stupid things when they have a giant budget.

The best teams are multigenerational

Experienced people have a wealth of wisdom that they can pass on to the next generation and young people can push back against long-held assumptions.

Always be training someone on your team to do your job

There should always be at least one or two people on your team who are natural successors to you. Take vacations, they are a great way to build a team's future capabilities and see who might step into your shoes in the years to come.

"Build" by Tony Fadell

Testing business ideas

No business plan survives first contact with customers.

Testing is the activity of reducing the risk of pursuing ideas that look good in theory, but won't work in reality.
Design is the activity of turning vague ideas, insights and evidence into concrete value propositions and solid business models.

We test business ideas to reduce risk and uncertainty. You break a big idea into smaller chunks of testable hypotheses covering three types of risk.

First, that customers or users are not interested in your idea (desirability).

Second, that you can't build and deliver your idea (feasibility).

Third, that your business can't earn enough money from your idea (viability).

A well-formed business hypothesis describes a testable, precise and discrete thing you want to investigate.
  • Your hypothesis is testable when it can be shown true (validated) or false (invalidated), based on evidence (and guided by experience).
  • Your hypothesis is precise when you know what success looks like. It describes the precise what, who, and when of your assumptions.
  • Your hypothesis is discrete when it describes only one distinct, testable and precise thing you want to investigate.
Turn your most important hypotheses into experiments to create evidence you can learn from.
  • "We believe that ..."
  • "To verify that, we will ..."
  • "And measure ..."
  • "We are right if ..."
Evidence is what you use to support or refute the hypotheses. Insights are what you learn from studying the evidence.
  • "We believed that ..."
  • "We observed ..."
  • "From that we learned that ..."
  • "Therefore, we will ..."
Then turn insights into action. Make informed decisions to abandon, change and/or continue testing a business idea based on collected insights.

But testing ideas costs money. So then you just ask for millions in the big bang annual funding process and spend it all to avoid decreased budget next year?

No. Think like a venture capitalist instead. Invest and incrementally fund the teams and a series of business ideas and double down on the ones that are successful.

Set up a small investment committee that consists of leadership with decision-making authority when it comes to budget, because they will be helping the teams navigate from seed, launch and growth stages. Funding decisions typically take place at 3-6 months intervals.

To summarize: Key Hypotheses + Experiments + Key Insights = Reducing uncertainty and risks.

"Testing business ideas" by David J. Bland and Alexander Osterwalder