"We need to prioritize better..."

"We need to prioritize better...", a phrase often heard when costs increase and resources become more constrained.

Ah, so it's that simple?

Prioritization means arranging or doing things in a particular order, while prioritization is the process of doing so. It’s obvious what it is, but not how to do it.

Everything we prioritize is a bet, meaning we make an informed decision to allocate our resources to one thing over another, despite uncertainty.

This is necessary because there will always be more work than there is capacity to execute. No matter how many talented people you have, you’ll never have enough to do everything. If everything is important, then nothing is important.

Unfortunately, there’s no magical formula for how to prioritize, and it’s rarely as simple as a mathematical exercise.

It's a constant balancing act between running and improving what already exists, pursuing new strategic bets, and weighing short-term gains against long-term impact.

There are many frameworks and techniques, but for me, it boils down to a collective judgement. A discussion between relevant disciplines, key people, and stakeholders.

Evaluate ideas in relation to each other. Compare and contrast. Which of these do we believe will have the biggest impact on our strategy, customers and business? How much effort and resources do we think it will require from us? Can we afford it as things look today? What are the consequences of not doing it? How confident are we in our assumptions?

To prioritize, we need filters. This is where strategy and goals come into play. What is it that you want to achieve, and what is the strategy to get there? If this is unclear, the prioritizations will suffer.

Without a clear sense of direction, it becomes difficult to determine what tasks are most important.

Where does it get difficult? If you want to do more of something, you must do less of something else. Pausing or stopping ongoing initiatives is crazy hard. It’s always easier to spin a story explaining why continuing is better than stopping.

Our cognitive biases and lack of clear thinking doesn't help. Prioritization has a human element. It's emotional. Our feelings take over.

We prefer to keep things the way they are.

We feel uncomfortable with loosing what we have. When something we like is (or threatens to be) taken away, we often value it higher, aka Loss Aversion.

We have a tendency to continue because we have invested resources in it, such as time, money, or competency, aka Sunk-Cost Fallacy.

The scarcer common resources become (money, capacity), the more territorial behavior we get. It's a self-preservation mechanism inherent in all of us.

So what can we do?

First, widen your options. Downgrading one of many is easier than if you only have one or two ongoing. With only one option you become too invested. You take it personally.

You ask yourself "How can I make this work?" instead of "Is there a better way? What else can we do with the same time and money?"

With a portfolio of options and activities, it's easier to step back and look for patterns. Which initiatives repeatedly create value? Where are the dependencies and synergies?

Second, shift your perspectives. It's very hard for us to see the world from outside our own perspective.

An example is the thought exercise Andrew Grove went through with Gordon Moore before committing to making a massive change in Intel's business: "If we got kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you think they would do?"

When we think of our colleagues or peers, we see the forest. When we think of ourselves, we get stuck in the trees. Ask yourself, "What would I tell my colleague to do in this situation?"

One of the best tools to get an outside view to improve your prioritization is to get other people's perspectives. But don't share your opinion first. Provide what the person needs to know to give valuable feedback, like what you try to accomplish, and nothing more. 

"What would be your process for prioritizing if you were in my shoes? How would you go about doing it?"

Third, set, in advance, guardrails and "tripwires" to snap us out of autopilot. These are signals that make us reconsider a prioritization. Signals that tell us when to jump and take action.

An artificial deadline is one example of a tripwire. Other examples include performance indicators, budget caps, behavioral patterns, and time-based reviews or check-ins.

Fourth, start talking about the opportunity cost. Limited resources always have alternative uses. Opportunity cost is what you give up when you make a choice. It's the thing you can't have because you picked something else.

The cost of using a limited resource for a specific activity, can be measured as the value or opportunity lost by not using it for a better alternative.

Opportunity cost can challenge the comfort of the status quo and make the cost of inaction more visible. You can highlight that continuing a low-value activity means sacrificing higher-value opportunities.

You can shift the narrative from "stopping an activity" to "investing in something better."

How do you prioritize?

Decision making in diverse groups and teams

A potential minefield. 

The high energy from ideation and brainstorming quickly turns into frustration when it's time to make a decision.

We don't fully control the outcomes from a decision, but what we have some control over and what we can improve is the quality of our decision process.

A challenge is that we often want to accomplish two things at the same time. 

We don't want to waste too much time, and we don't want to sacrifice too much accuracy. The key to balancing this trade-off is figuring out the penalty for not getting the decision exactly right. What's the worst case that can happen?

So you have a list of ideas coming from your team, but which of them shall we pursue? There will always be one that is accountable for the final call, but there are many ways to accomplish it.

Shall we do an individual ranking where each idea must pass relevant thresholds, or shall we rank them relative to each other? What are the selection criteria to assess? What's your current constraints and non-negotiables?

Shall you do it democratically through voting? Voting is time effective and consistent. Will everyone feel a part of the decision through voting? Do you get rid of groupthink? In a voting there will be limited information and knowledge flow between the team members. Do we want that?

Or shall we just appoint a leader that makes the decision? That's probably effective, but the quality of the decision depends heavily on the leader's style and knowledge.

Will the leader involve and listen to each team member's opinions, and change their own opinions if needed? Will the leader share their thought process afterwards?

Or shall we aim for consensus? Done right, consensus can result in a high-quality decision. You share information within the team, everyone hears what everyone else has to say and can ask questions to each other. Team members also share responsibility (if not, is it true consensus).

However, consensus takes time. It's slow. At least for a new team. It can easily break down without the right team dynamics and guidelines. Does it feel a bit "leaderless"? 

And is it not a short distance from consensus to compromise where three good ideas are turned into one bad one to please everybody.

What about the consensus trap where everyone seems to be in agreement but in reality the majority disagrees without speaking up. What do you do if not everyone agrees with you at the end? Some companies swear to "disagree and commit".

Gerald Weinberg said that the trick is not to know the best method, but the best method under the present circumstances. The most effective leaders are the ones who help the team to recognize when circumstances change and to find a new decision making method that fits.

How do you make decisions in diverse groups and teams? Which forms do you use under which circumstances?

How do you decide?

We make thousands of decisions every day – some big, some small. 

What we do have some control over, what we can improve, is the quality of our decisions.

Any decision is, in essence, a prediction about the future. Making a decision is making a guess about how things might turn out.

Your decisions will only be as good as your ability to anticipate how they might turn out. 

You can rarely guarantee a good outcome (or a bad one). The goal is to try to choose the option that will lead to the most favorable range of outcomes.

Good outcomes can result from both good and bad decisions, and bad outcomes can result from both good and bad decisions.

  • Step 1, for each option under consideration, identify the reasonable set of possible outcomes.
  • Step 2, identify your preferences using the payoff for each outcome – to what degree do you like or dislike each outcome, given your goals and values? If an outcome moves you toward a goal, the payoff is positive. If an outcome moves you away from a goal, the payoff is negative.
  • Step 3, estimate the likelihood of each outcome unfolding. You know enough to make an educated guess. All your knowledge, imperfect as it might be, means that your guess isn't random. The willingness to guess is essential to improving decisions.
  • Step 4, assess the relative likelihood of outcomes you like and dislike for the options under consideration. With the possible outcomes, payoffs and probabilities, you can now see how the upside compares to the downside, whether the possible gains compensates for the downside.

These four steps force you to assess what you know, and seek out what you don't.

Increasing accuracy costs time. Saving time costs accuracy.

The challenge for any decision-maker is that you want to accomplish two things at once: You don't want to waste too much time and you don't want to sacrifice too much accuracy. The key to balancing the trade-off between time and accuracy is figuring out the penalty for not getting the decision exactly right.

If your goal is to get certainty about your choice, you will be stuck in analysis paralysis and never be finished. Pretty much every decision is made with incomplete information.

One of the best tools for improving your decision-making is to get other people's perspectives.

When asking for input or advice, don't offer your opinion first. When you tell someone what you think before hearing what they think, you can cause their opinion to bend toward yours, oftentimes without them knowing it. Provide what the person needs to know to give worthwhile feedback – and nothing more.

The goal of good decision-making can't be that every single decision will work out well. That's an impossible goal. Embracing that fact is necessary for becoming a better decision-maker. 

Your goal is, across the portfolio of all the decisions that you make in your life, to advance toward your goals rather than retreat away from them.

"How to decide" by Annie Duke